Tag Archives: uncertainty

Bubble trouble: all information is not equal

This post is partly prompted by this comment and this paper (pdf) (via) on the US housing price bubbles and busts and (greatly) extends this comment by myself. It is also a response to the work of mathematician-turned-historian Andrew Odlyzko. In a previous post, I argued that easy monetary policy was not to blame for the asset booms […]

On simplifying without simplification

[Every now and then, the law throws up something really fascinating. This week’s exercise in fascination was instructions to prepare a briefing note on the causes and consequences of the global financial crisis, directed at yours truly. What made these instructions so difficult to follow is that while the causes and consequences of the GFC […]

Science humour

Have you seen this cat? Does it generate a sense of uncertainty? This is the Saturday chit-chat post.

The misbegotten birth of macro

As folks may have noted, I like graphs; they can be very useful illustrations, particularly of historical trends.  Consider this graph, taken from the 2012 US Federal Budget (via). What is striking is the long-run stability of economic growth in the US, apart from one episode which stands out fairly dramatically. Very dramatically (pdf) given that: […]

Broken by the fix

What do the goldzone Great Depression (1929-3?) and the Eurozone Great Recession (2008-?) have in common? They were both created by European central banks with the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) as accessory during and after the fact. (Yes, the monetary shock which set off the Great Recession started in Europe though the responsibility of the […]